Methodology

2025 ALEC-Laffer State Economic Competitiveness Index:
Economic Outlook Methodology

This report contains 15 policy variables that have a proven impact on the migration of capital—both monetary and human—into and out of states. The end result of an equal weighted combination of these variables is the 2024 ALEC-Laffer Economic Outlook ranking of the states. Each of these factors is influenced directly by state lawmakers through the legislative process. The 15 factors and a basic description of their purposes, sourcing, and subsequent calculation methodologies are as follows:

Highest Marginal Personal Income Tax Rate

This variable includes state and local taxes, if any, and any impact of federal deductibility, if allowed. A state’s largest city is used as a proxy for local tax rates. Data were drawn from Tax Analysts, Federation of Tax Administrators, and individual state tax forms. Tax rates are as of January 1, 2025.

Highest Marginal Corporate Income Tax Rate

This variable includes local taxes, if any, and includes the effect of federal deductibility, if allowed. A state’s largest city is used as a proxy for local tax rates. In the case of gross receipts or business franchise taxes, an effective tax rate is approximated using NIPA profits, rental and proprietor’s income and gross domestic product data. The Texas franchise tax is not a traditional gross receipts tax, but is instead a “margin” tax with more than one rate. A margin tax creates less distortion than a gross receipts tax. Therefore, we believe the best measurement for an effective corporate tax rate for Texas is to average the 4.27 percent measure we would use if the tax were a gross receipts tax and the 0.75 percent highest rate on its margin tax, leading to our measure of 2.66%. Data were drawn from Tax Analysts, Federation of Tax Administrators, individual state tax forms, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Tax rates are as of January 1, 2025.

Personal Income Tax Progressivity

This variable is measured as the difference between the average tax liability per $1,000 at incomes of $50,000 and $150,000. The tax liabilities are measured using a combination of effective tax rates, exemptions, and deductions at both state and federal levels, with calculations from Laffer Associates. Tax rates are as of January 1, 2025.

Property Tax Burden

This variable is calculated as the amount of tax revenues from state and local property taxes per $1,000 of personal income. We have used U.S. Census Bureau data, for which the most recent year available is 2022. These data were released in October 2024.

Sales Tax Burden

This variable is calculated as the amount of tax revenues from state and local sales taxes per $1,000 of personal income.  Sales taxes taken into consideration include the general sales tax and specific sales taxes. We use U.S. Census Bureau data, for which the most recent year available is 2022. These data were released in October 2024. Where appropriate, gross receipts or business franchise taxes, counted as sales taxes in the Census data, are subtracted from a state’s total sales taxes in order to avoid double-counting tax burden in a state.

Remaining Tax Burden

This variable is calculated as the amount of tax revenues from state and local taxes—excluding personal income, corporate income, property, sales, and severance—per $1,000 of personal income. We use U.S. Census Bureau data, for which the most recent available year is 2022. These data were released in October 2024.

Estate or Inheritance Tax

This variable assesses if a state levies an estate or inheritance tax. We chose to score states based on either a “yes” for the presence of a state-level estate or inheritance tax, or a “no” for the absence thereof. Data are drawn from McGuire Woods LLP, “State Death Tax Chart” and indicate the presence of an estate or inheritance tax as of January 1, 2025.

Recently Legislated Tax Changes

This variable is calculated as each state’s relative change in tax burden over a two-year period (in this case, 2023 and 2024 legislative sessions) for the next fiscal year, using revenue estimates of legislated tax changes per $1,000 of personal income. Personal income data are from 2023. This timeframe ensures that tax changes will still be reflected in a state’s rankings despite lags in revenue data. ALEC and Laffer Associates calculations use raw data from state legislative fiscal notes and other sources. 

Debt Service as a Share of Tax Revenue

This variable is calculated as the interest paid on state and local debt as a percentage of state and local tax revenue. This information comes from 2022 U.S. Census Bureau data. These data were released in October 2024.

Public Employees per 10,000 Residents

This variable is calculated as the full-time equivalent state and local public employees per 10,000 of state population. This information comes from 2023 U.S. Census Bureau data. These data were released in May 2024.

State Liability System Costs

This variable ranks the costs of tort systems by state, as a share of that state’s GDP. Data come from the report Tort Costs in America, Third Edition, published by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Institute for Legal Reform in November 2024. This variable reflects tort costs in 2022.

State Minimum Wage

This variable indicates minimum wage enforced on a state-by-state basis. If a state does not have a minimum wage, we use the federal minimum wage floor of $7.25 per hour. This information comes from the U.S. Department of Labor, as of January 1, 2025.

Workers’ Compensation Costs

This variable highlights the 2022 Workers’ Compensation Index Rate (cost per $100 of payroll). This survey is conducted biennially by the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services. 

Right-to-Work State

This variable assesses whether or not a state allows employees to be forced to pay union dues as a condition of employment. States receive their rank based on either a “yes” for the presence of a right-to-work law or a “no” for the lack thereof. This information comes from the National Right to Work Legal Defense and Education Foundation. Right-to-work status is as of January 1, 2025.

Tax and Expenditure Limits

This variable measures the influence of tax and expenditure limits on state tax revenue and spending. It is based on the presence of (1) technical tax and expenditure limits, (2) mandatory voter approval of tax increases, and (3) supermajority requirements for tax increases. Information was sourced from state constitutions and statutes.  

2025 ALEC-LAFFER STATE ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS INDEX: Economic Performance Methodology

Gross Domestic Product Growth

This variable is calculated by observing state GDP growth figures over 10 years from 2013 to 2023. A percentage change formula over the 10-year timeframe generates a GDP growth figure for each state. Data are drawn from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which were last updated in September 2024.

Cumulative Domestic Migration

This variable is a summation of net in-migration of individuals for each state over a 10-year period from 2014-2023. Data are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau, which were last revised December 2024.

Non-Farm Employment Growth

This variable is calculated by observing state non-farm employment growth figures over a 10-year period, from 2013-2023. A percentage change formula over the 10-year timeframe generates a decadal non-farm employment growth rate for each state. Data are drawn from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which were last revised December 2024.